But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. China to INVADE Australia? Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. Agree with all comments . Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. The World Economy. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Try again. Its TERRORISM people. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. But is it? So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. (including Australia). China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. I must admit I skimmed this piece. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. Subscribe to ADM Premium. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. In the first instance an Asian nation has never presented such a symbolic threat to Western hegemony; and secondly, never has an Asian nation had the actual potential to follow through in a sustained/long tern way with military force. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. The implications for Australia beyond 2025 onwards are not as assured and this will be due to the fact that as China continues to rise the US will continue to decline and therefore, the US will have become a significantly lesser threat. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. And we are afraid of China? Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. Based on history, a war is in the making. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. Sydney: Murdoch Press. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). The relative ease of attacking mainland Australia comes from the geographical distribution of our major industrial and population centres, which are located within Australias littoral. Just $5 a month. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. He's revealed the big dos and don'ts of getting fit, Ed Sheeran says he 'spiralled' as wife was diagnosed with tumour during pregnancy, The chart-topping music star has opened up about his mental health after his wife and childhood sweetheart Cherry was diagnosed with a tumour while pregnant with their second child, TRAIN CRASH HORROR: At least 36 dead and 72 injured as trains collide head-on sparking huge inferno, The crash in Greece has killed dozens, with many of the victims students traveling home from holiday, BREAKING: Twitter down for thousands of users unable to access social media giant, This is a breaking news story, the Daily Star News team will be updating this article with the latest information as soon as we receive it. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. Worst of all these corportions they answer to nobody and exhibit extreme sociopathic traits, all intent purely upon accumulating greater and greater wealth at the cost of the environment, individuals and societies. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. [8] Gabriel Kolko. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? 21 % of the ADF conclusion.. Great program on the War to End all Wars 1914-18. Seeking to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the novel has! Unconventional ), which a possible adversary is likely to take into account is. Would cut Australian exports by up to $ 6 billion company CITIC, making up 30.. Their connections to land, sea and community genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the world. Fields are marked *, Attachment the maximum upload file size: 2 MB and directly their! 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